The Reasons Middle Eastern Investment Hasn't Turned The Magpies into Championship Challengers
Eddie Howe is not prone to dramatics or sweeping public statements. So by his standards, his media briefing following the weekend's 3-1 defeat counts as a angry outburst. Newcastle scored first but the opposition took the lead by half-time, as well as hitting the post and having a penalty overturned by VAR, leading Howe to make a triple change at the half-time.
“The opening period was particularly irritating,” Howe said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I believe that was a reflection of our performance level in that moment during the match and it's extremely uncommon for me to have that impression. In fact, I don’t think I have since I’ve been head coach of Newcastle, therefore I believed the squad required a significant change at the break. This explains why I made what I did.”
Three key players all came off at half-time and the team managed to steady to an extent in the second half, without ever really looking like they could get back into the contest against an opponent that had won only one of their last nine fixtures. Given how packed the middle of the table currently is, with just three points separating third from 11th, and a nine-point margin between second and 17th, a run of 12 points from ten matches has not left the Magpies adrift but, similarly, they cannot finish the season in 13th.
The Issue of Expectations
The problem partially is one of public view. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, Newcastle have the richest owners in the world. The expectation when the Saudi fund bought a majority stake of the club in 2021 was that it would have a game-changing impact, as Roman Abramovich had at Chelsea or the City Group did at the Etihad. The difference is that those two investors took over prior to the advent of FFP regulations (and the ongoing allegations against City relate to whether they breached those regulations once they were in place).
Profit and sustainability restrictions limit the ability of owners, no matter how wealthy, to spend money on their teams and therefore likely would have hindered any Saudi attempt to elevate Newcastle to the level of City. However there is no need for Newcastle’s expenditure to have been so restrained as it has been; they could have spent more and remained within the threshold – or just accepted a fairly minor European fine since their big issue is more with the continental than the domestic rules.
Stadium Investment and Financial Rules
Additionally, infrastructure spending is excluded from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the simplest way to increase revenue to create more PSR flexibility would be to expand or redevelop the arena. Considering the location of St James’ Park, with listed buildings on two sides, practically that likely means constructing an completely new venue. Rumors circulated in March of potentially undertaking the nearby relocation to a local park – resistance from local groups might have been overcome with a promise to create a replacement green space on the existing ground location – but there has been no movement on that proposal. There has been significant retrenchment from the PIF on a range of projects as it refocuses on domestic affairs; the approach to the football club appears completely in alignment with that strategic shift.
Player Sales Situation
The Alexander Isak episode was born of that conflict. A more confident management might have portrayed his sale as essential to free up capital for further spending; instead there was a unsuccessful effort to retain him. That meant Newcastle began the season amidst a feeling of frustration despite the signings of several new players. The opening was mixed: a single victory in their initial six games.
Yet it appeared a turning point was reached. They had won five in six before Sunday, a streak that featured convincing wins of Union Saint-Gilloise and Benfica in the Champions League. This explains the display against the Hammers was such a shock. The problem maybe is that the team's style is very aggressive, high-energy; a slight drop-off in intensity can have profound consequences. Perhaps the pressure of domestic, Champions League and Carabao Cup matches, five games in a fortnight, had taken its toll. The German forward featured in all five games and looked especially fatigued.
The Nature of Contemporary Soccer
This is the reality of today's the sport. Coaches have to be prepared to make changes. Howe has been unfortunate that the forward's fitness issue has left him lacking attacking options but, no matter how reasonable the explanations, Sunday’s showing was unacceptable –particularly following scoring first at a ground primed to criticize its home team.
Howe will hope it was merely a temporary setback, one of those days when everybody is below par at once, but if the Magpies are to qualify for the European competition next season, let alone one day launch an genuine title challenge, they must not be as inconsistent as they have been.